ncku-talk2008-04-22

NCKU Math colloquium

DATE 2008-04-22　16:10-17:00

PLACE 數學館地下室演講廳

SPEAKER 陳晴玉教授（國立高雄大學應用數學系）

TITLE Modelling epidemiological consequences of pathogen mutation to a non-transmissible strain

ABSTRACT We derive a mathematical model here to study the outbreak of an infectious disease which is not transmissible between humans until a mutation of the virus or bacterium takes place. Avian influenza is used as a paradigm for this study, for which we model the mutation of the virus from a bird-human to a human-human transmissible form. An extension to the SIR approach is applied, leading to a system of ordinary differential equations describing the evolution of two classes of susceptible and infected states and a removed state.
The model is analyzed to determine in terms of the parameters the necessary conditions and timescales for the onset of the epidemic, the size and duration of the epidemic and the maximum level of the infected individuals at one time. Two biologically reasonable asymptotic limits are considered, and the results demonstrate that the basic reproductive number R₀ differ for the two limiting cases depending on the infection rates and the division of the susceptible populations. The model is extended to investigate the effectiveness of a range of quarantine and vaccination programmes giving quantitative estimates on the outcomes of these control measures

NCKU Math colloquium

DATE	2008-04-22　16:10-17:00

PLACE	數學館地下室演講廳

SPEAKER	陳晴玉教授（國立高雄大學應用數學系）

TITLE	Modelling epidemiological consequences of pathogen mutation to a non-transmissible strain

ABSTRACT	We derive a mathematical model here to study the outbreak of an infectious disease which is not transmissible between humans until a mutation of the virus or bacterium takes place. Avian influenza is used as a paradigm for this study, for which we model the mutation of the virus from a bird-human to a human-human transmissible form. An extension to the SIR approach is applied, leading to a system of ordinary differential equations describing the evolution of two classes of susceptible and infected states and a removed state. The model is analyzed to determine in terms of the parameters the necessary conditions and timescales for the onset of the epidemic, the size and duration of the epidemic and the maximum level of the infected individuals at one time. Two biologically reasonable asymptotic limits are considered, and the results demonstrate that the basic reproductive number R₀ differ for the two limiting cases depending on the infection rates and the division of the susceptible populations. The model is extended to investigate the effectiveness of a range of quarantine and vaccination programmes giving quantitative estimates on the outcomes of these control measures